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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 16, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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i'm curious big picture, they have a global business, what they have to say about europe and china, really about transition to cloud. >> steph, always good to see you. mike, see you tomorrow. >> i'll be back. >> looking forward. >> that's closing bell. thanks for joining us. >> now fast money. >> starts now overlooking new york city's times square. tonight on fast, he is back. tom is here with another exclusive interview to respond to the dramatic viacom board shake-up. is sumner calling the shots or is this sharing. the man called rebound is now here with his boldest call yet and what he says is a trillion dollar inflection point for the markets. a crude conundrum, oil 3% but a number of integrated oil stocks closing out their highs. what's going on? traders weigh in. first start off with what was a
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puzzling day for the markets stop staging their intraday reversal since march and the move came as reversed sharply off lows, this following tragic death of uk lawmakers some interpreted to mean decrease odds of brexit. is brexit now off the table? how do the markets respond? bk, you made the observation first. >> it's terrible that market is actually reacting to this type of thing and action. that did move the market, the pound move and the rest of the markets. i take this as saying it's not necessarily off the table at all. but given the way the markets were trading, you had so many down days in a row, a lot of people short-term shorts in it. it was probably a good place for people to cover and that accelerated itself. i would not necessarily buy into the rumor brexit is off the table. i think it's still out there but there are other issues we have out there and that's the slowing of the global economy. >> if you believe it's an option, on the table, you had
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market reaction, this could be a tradeable moment. >> gives a glimpse of what may happen. a couple, look at gdx, 52-week high, lows, big reversal not ready to call gold move over. ardent bulls, i consider myself one of them, have to be dismayed, gold over 1500, that is the level and reversed lower. something to watch. again, i'm not ready to call it over but something to watch. flip side, bonds, tlt, didn't hold entire bid but most of it. again, yields going lower. i see what's going on with the dollar. not ready to call the gold mood off but have to absolutely watch over the next few days how gdx reacts. >> this is range trade. oversold, options expiration, a number of factors, relief on brexit, now bre main. you had the situation first of all yields can bounce.
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all these defensive trades you had around brexit, sell off of gold, gold is safety. i don't know. again, i think gold is going higher so i'm not going to pile on that. i will say i think utilities are sell. anything defensive, the place to run in the last couple of days bond market a dehydrated, 170, kudos to guy. i actually think, i don't know if i made this clear, no question yields lower, no question relative value around the world this is something. but my view, unlike these guys, i think it's very equity positive. doesn't mean we don't have enormous volatility ahead of us. at the end of the day, people negative yields -- >> i think it was equity positive. i'm not sure still equity positive. to add to what tim said, you have rebalance. net adds are going to be utility and energy. those are the biggest net adds. >> net sales consumer discretionary and industrials.
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there is rebounds with gold as well. i still think gdx is a buy. i think it's a buy in any market. last time they raised gdx sold off, then rallied. it was up 90% up until recently. than it came back. there have been days it reversed. it seems as though the only they think you were buying that didn't turn its back on you were yield plays an gold. >> what were you doing specifically today? >> i took a little bit of profit in some gold and some tlt, such a run. i still think gold goes higher. i thought the most interesting thing with gold trade and dollar, they both sold off in tandem. positively correlated. to me i take that to me safe haven assets. hoarding of gold, hoarding of u.s. dollars in this environment. they trade together, which is very different from what most people expect. >> i was talking to chris williams earlier today on power lunch. he was mentioning that you have
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the possibility of blrexit off the table, what if there's a delay, this was a rumor, he mentioned to me. >> that would be a brelay. >> enough of that. >> of the breferendum. serious business. >> not laughing at that. continue. >> what kind of environment does that create, there's a delay. >> everybody talks about waiting for certainty. they are never going to the it. all that does is add to uncertainty we already have. there's going to be a vote at some point. my opinion, i think it's a coin flip. i think cooler heads will prevail. i want to go back, i happen to think it's the crux of this market. yields are going lower we both agree. bullish or bearish. one of the reasons money needs to find a home, i say it's bearish because it signals something to me that the economy -- >> yields aren't this low. i use that term a lot.
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i use it with oil. gets to the place market takes -- >> why the stocks? why go into stocks? >> hold on a second. let's talk about yields for a second. guys talking about yields. >> it's stock positive. >> yes, it is. in fact, there's no place to go. dcf model, discount rate, everything lower, no place to go. you squeeze people out of the bond market. absolutely equity positive. >> i want to go to the price is truth. >> i know exactly what tim is saying. when i say price is truth, this is what i mean. the only thing you have to base decisions off day to day is where things are trading and where things close. in that regard price is truth. if you're short of stock at 30 and trading 35, regardless whether or not you think it's a $10 stock, $35 is your truth, the truth you need to make a decision. >> how about this run up in stocks that may be fueled by the fact there's no other place to put the money. is that -- >> yes, it is. if you've been trying to play it
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from the short side all along, regardless of what you think should be happening you've been wrong, price is true. >> i want to say this about the bond market. just because yields on the u.s. are going to break for this 150 level at some point, it doesn't mean that the global economy is on its knees. it means central banks around the world are buying every bond they can. central banks -- feds -- >> we did hear yesterday that yellin's concerns were growth. i think that i agree with your first thesis, but it really hinges on global growth. >> yes. >> the questions aren't there because global growth is so bad. >> there is a point where the low yields are not good. we look at germany, japan, negative rates, those markets tanked. at some point that flips. i think it has flipped. >> for more in market action, head of quantitative and derivative strategies at jpmorgan.
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mar marco, good to see you a fierce debate on what the market level means. what's your take on stocks now. >> i think tim is right. stocks, we expect high volatility in stocks. high volatility typically not good for the level itself. if you look at the leverage in the market across various strategy it's relatively high. stocks are going to be more volatile. they may be range bond or down lower that's sort of a short view on stocks. >> short view. the risk reward is really to the downside. >> towards the downside. we had sort of a positive price action for the past several weeks, last few days a little bit of pullback. so if you look at hedge fund lempl, look at the lempl disparity, volatility strategies, retail investors, it's relatively high. we are already at the high level. if you look at europe, europe pulled back significantly. u.s. hasn't.
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i think we had a few in front of us, next week, next month. risk to the downside on s&p. >> how much downside, looking at yields earlier in today's session ten-year trading 2012. highest level since february. we all know what happened in february. gold screening higher in general, maybe just not today. what is commensurate with those kinds of signals in the other asset classes in terms of downside for stocks. >> for stocks. i think we could probably be looking at, you know, vix going to 20, 13.5 to 20, that would be commensurate. we obviously s&p did not react, vix reacted obviously last week a lot, last few days. realize volatility did not react. it's really anticipation of risk, which, again, sort of we have next week potentially brexit, fed july, some seasonal weakness this time of the year. so investors are piling into hedges but market is not yet
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moving. >> so we were talking about the dollar and gold together. i notice you shaking your head that was an interesting move today. you're looking at all these strategies, various hedge fund strategies, a lot are correlations between assets. how does that either change what you're looking at or how does that impact your view? >> gold is driven by a few different -- relationary, dollar, risk where you mention today traded risk gone, dollar and gold sold off. i think with the fed last few days, it traded actually fairly inflationary with coming lower, dollar weakening, gold shooting up. it has these multiple faces. that's an attractive feature of gold. if you look at central bank balance sheets all time highs 10 trillion negative yielding bonds. as inflationary asset, i think it helps. potentially if things turn for worse, it's also going to pick
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up this risk of hedging. >> where do you see the 10-year yield going? >> 10-year yields, near term i think 10-year yields go lower. that's spillover from booms and japanese going negative. that spills over and should yields go lower. medium to long-term, i think it's a potentially dangerous situation. i think clearly if you look at jgb, some evidence there, central bank buying most new issuance, yields negative which i don't think makes a lot of sense. i think medium to long-term potential risk situation and sort of backfire. short-term, i think they tend to go lower. momentum positive for bonds so yields go lower short-term. >> do we see one four. >> i wouldn't say targets. >> okay.
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>> marco, you're also quantitative, derivative guy. ultimately you look at these relationships, as we said, between asset classes. europe is so oversold relative to the u.s. here. don't you like european equities? wouldn't a great trade short s&p against long dax, because again, two, three standard deviation event, which is just empirically a raremont moment. >> if i had to go long equities, emerging markets or europe, down 27 from the high, s&p close to the high. if there's sort of some of these risks ahead of us, we could see that convergence. snap back could be bigger in europe than u.s. if i had to put some inequities i would there. >> if you had to. sounds very hedge the way you put it. >> no. i think investors have to have equity exposure because you cannot know the future. there's always probabilities. you might lean bearish over bullish, 70/30, 60/40.
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you can't just not have equities. again, emerging market, europe, that's your best bet now. >> marco, thank you. good to see you. jpmorgan. would you be on marco's trade. >> on his team. smart guy. >> as a trade. different story. >> team, yes. >> i like a lot -- listen, i skew negative in terms of s&p short-term. i understand what tim is saying three-term standard deviation event. to me germany is rolling over. does germany camp up to s&p or does s&p catch up to what's doing on in europe? i think it's the latter. again, that's what makes market. ewg in my opinion failed. what are we talking about with flash gordon, a preemptive strike, remember we said be careful. it sold off since. europe is leading, we need to follow at some point. >> european financial, deutsche bank with record lows. credit suisse. >> i think you have to stay away from all financials at this
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point. i don't want to oversimplify this. all the yield plays seem to be the way what's working. everyone wants to bet against them. to the correlation, the only correlation that matters is one that's stable. all those correlations have been on one day and off next day. the only correlation to me is s&p and oil. you follow those two. those have been in lock step. i think you stay with yield. don't make this more difficult than the. >> are you long germany or en versus short s&p. >> yes, i'm long a lot, hedge against certain parts. tactically i've added remn. before yellin i added some. when i look at ewg i look at reversal, last week saw reversal on the ten-year, i think this is a trading opportunity. i think european stocks are so oversold this is, if anything, again weaker currency is helping these guys again. we're going to hear about that. up next curious thing happen in energy space. oil tumbling but a number of energy stocks rallying. what's behind the move.
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oracle higher after hours on earnings. a call well under way. hear the latest headlines. later the news of the day. sumner red stone removing five of viacom directors, including dauman. much more fast money after this. s from my chase ink card i bought all the fruit... veggies... and herbs needed to create a pop-up pick-your-own juice bar in the middle of the city, so now everyone knows... we have some of the freshest juice in town. see what the power of points can do for your business. learn more at
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xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. welcome back to "fast money." interesting divergence, crude oil hitting a five week low. take a look at big integrated oil stocks. exxon, valero, chevron, all clinging to gain despite the steep decline in oil. what's going on? >> clinging to gains, a high at 52. trading for quite sometime. tim talking about being long, energy names with great balance sheets that's proven to be correct. my problem here and it's been that way a lot. these are rich stocks at $80 oil. so i think they are extraordinarily rich stocks at $50. exxon closed at 52 times forward earnings.
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i can't answer what's going on, why people are moving in. exacerbated downside, last couple days selloff is nothing to beware, crude going higher on the equity side. >> i think it's all about yield. i think if you look at chevron, you have a 4% yield exxon, same type of things valero, all yielders. if you look at ep space you don't get yielders there, they were all down today. to guy's point of valuation everyone reaching for yields, they bloated that multiple on them. >> relative valuation as guy was saying they are cheap, relative to themselves, you get a yield. again, you're taking a view on oil. we've seen rate counts increase. we're now through the bulk of the big part of the summer driving season run-up and you're seeing oil down quite a bit. in my view you see oil back in the '80s trade in this very wide range, certainly back to 20. >> it can trade back.
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>> large names will be impacted a lot less than those other names that are in different area. >> i think you're making a good point on the yield in those names. again, that chase for yield, we did a whole show on that. it's the guys that to be opportunistic and have operational leverage to be able to be buying assets, there will be another fire sell. i don't think oil is going to $30. today's close below 47.35, 50-day is a bit of a concern. a fantastic reversal and brent didn't. when i look at the entire oil space, i think oil services are the ones most interesting here. again, if you hold this view that we've actually taken a lot of supply out of the market and you're going to see a case where a lot of guys need to if anything amp up cap ex, halliburton had a big pullback, if anything i'd be sizing up for that one. >> as we head to break, oracle, rallying after earnings, call under way. we'll hear from both ceos on the quarter and competition.
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i'm melissa lee and you're watching fast money cnbc first in business worldwide. meantime, here is what else is coming up on fast. >> volatility picking up but stocks may have just flashed a secret buy sign. we'll tell you what it is. plus redstone pushes viacom ceo philip philippe dauman. he's back with a bolder call. he'll review it when fast money returns. can a toothpaste do everything well?
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welcome back to "fast money." cnbc has the call under way. josh. >> well, melissa, on the call,
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beginning that call taking a bit of a victory lap. let's listen to what she had to tell analysts. >> for most companies as their business grows, the growth rate goes down. in our case as the business grows, the growth rates are continuing to increase. in our fast business we reported 20% growth in fiscal year 2014. 34 in fiscal year 2015, and now 52% in fiscal year 2016. >> so in q 4 software business platform, $690 million, better than what the street expected. also interesting to hear larry ellison talking about the company's infrastructure. there you're competing with amazon, microsoft. ellison saying he believes oracle is highly competitive, lower cost, better liability. clearly a shot at the bow at
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other rivals in the space. on the call, bring you guys more headlines as they come. >> let us know, josh. josh lipton from san francisco. guy, what's your oracle. >> 14 times forward earnings. i don't think it's particularly expensive. i think this is a good quarter margins improving. get back to 45 level it come down from. it's got a couple of dollars, 8 to 10%. >> 1 1/2% dividend yield and growth. in this environment that's a name everybody will buy. $37 it bounced off of significantly. i usually don't buy after earnings release and a gap after hours but i think you could on this one. >> is this oracle story or stocks in general. >> i think oracle story. it's been kind of a prove it to me again story. i think to the extent that these guys, i think, are making up for expectations that were overly lofty. it's a company that continues on every level. >> everyone looking at cloud, obviously a transition story as
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tim said. database being flat that's a positive. cloud margins up, that's a positive. if you jump in -- you know my three-day rule, jump in, use today's low 38.08 below moving ample. >> up next, a story that continues to fascinate wall street and hollywood alike. sumner redstone announcing five directors including none other than philippe dauman. can he remain ceo. tom freson back with immediate reaction to the news. get this, an even bolder call to reveal right after this break. e working on a bust of reaction to the news. get this, an even bolder call to reveal right after this break. a. things really took off when i got my domain name from godaddy and now they're selling like hot cakes...made of cheese. got a crazy idea you think you can turn into a success? we know you can and we've got a domain for you. go you. godaddy.
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welcome back to "fast money." stocks staging huge reversal snapping five-day losing streak. s&p clog closing near the high, do you 93 points. telecom, consumer staples all gaining 1%. here is what's coming up second half of the show. volatility surging to highest
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lel since february. have no fear, that could be a major sign for stocks. we'll explain. plus smith & wesson surging after hours. we'll get the latest on the company's conference call. first official sumner redstone ousted ceo philippe dauman with four other board members. jane wells with the latest on this developing story. jane. >> well, melissa, it may not quite be official, redstone through national amusements removed dauman as chairman, did they? could they soon fire him? earlier today this is what the viacom board looked like before five members, including dauman was kicked off. replaced by chairman of buzzfeed, judith, discovery, banking, car rentals, dream works. but ousted director fred salerno sent out a statement from viacom. not on his own e-mail, from viacom. hold on, ouster is subject to
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legal approval in delaware court. he and other independent directors are filing a brief pushing the court to make a decision on this issue asap. salerno said sadly it's not clear mr. redstone is being manipulated and used by his daughter. basically saying this is a plot by shaarei redstone to take over the country. as for dauman no comment. eight months ago he had his 10-year contract extended through 2018. sumner redstone called him an extraordinary ceo giving him $17 million in stock awards at the time. his total compensation over the last four years has been 4d 25 million. the more this showdown rachets up, the more investors improve. shares up 14% in the last monday. by the way, there is a clause in dauman's contract saying if he is fired early without good reason he can be compensated as much as three times his annual salary and bonus. so tens of millions of dollars. melissa. >> quite a parachute. jane, thank you.
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yesterday we spoke exclusively with voi com coe tom frese orrin who said a board shake-up was the key to saving viacom. he had choice words for the company and philippe dauman. >> they came in as a team and they can go out as a team if that happens. the board needs to be replaced, bring people from entertainment business, popular culture who can add something, understand the business maybe a bit more. >> let welcome back our good friend tom freston. he joins us exclusively on fast line with latest news. tom, welcome back to the show purchase hi. >> is the writing at this point on the wall in terms of philippe dauman's fate. >> it would appear so but you never know. once again, this is going to be thrown back into the courts. so the soap opera seems to continue without any certainty. this would appear to be a good fresh step for viacom, a new
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viacom. >> you spoke to -- go ahead. >> i have no idea how this is going to be -- how this will translate in the courts. >> have you spoken to shari redstone, there's an allegation by salerno she's used by redstone. >> i haven't spoken to shari. i don't know anything about what's going on with shari and her dad. in a conversation a while ago she told me she was dealing with him. i didn't get specific information. i certainly got a sense he was aware of what was going on and not at the picture that had been painted by philippe. >> who do you think is calling the shots in this instance? >> i really don't know. i would like to think it's sumner. this would be in character, in line with the type of thing he
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would do, but i can't -- i don't even want to venture a guess who is calling the shots. >> yesterday during our interview you said dauman was not a good listener. he's not known to be a good listener. do you think he's been tone deaf at this point in terms of what his role at the company should be? do you think he should step down? >> well, i think as i said yesterday, i didn't think he was optimal leader for viacom. if it's time for him to tep down or not, this is not my decision. it appears this is still doing to be rather complicated. can you see wall street is certainly voting that would be the case. i know that the employees would love to see some resolution in this. and i think are looking forward to really a new day beginning rather soon. >> you know, we had our reporter on outlining philippe dauman's compensation package. the parachute he has, should he
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be termed without good cause, according to his contract, what do you think of the -- it is a jaw dropping number that dauman could walk away with, even if he's ousted. i'm just wondering what your thoughts are on that? >> well, yes, it's a lot of money. it is a lot of money. >> does he deserve it? >> well, you know, one could argue it's in his contract and it was approved by the board and the compensation committee there, so contractually he deserves it. does he deserve it in light of the performance of the company? many, many people would argue no. that's probably one of the reasons we're seeing the stock shoot up now with the rumors of his departure. >> you said this board housecleaning is a good first step toward what could be viacom's new future. i'm just wondering if you think perhaps sumner should shoulder some blame. why didn't he do this before even when he saw the company was in decline and philippe dome op
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was on the board and at the helm of the company. >> that's a really good question and i do not have a clue as to why. i really do not. i haven't really been in touch with sumner in any way in 10 years. >> should he be blamed, though? ultimately he could have done this before. >> well, i mean, you know, to say he has to be blamed, there's an inference here there's a bad thing he has not done. i don't know that i'm ready to say that, no. i don't know that he needs to be blamed. i don't know who is at blame here. >> you say that sort of wistfully, tom. >> what do you mean? >> you know, just sort of maybe you're a little bit nostalgic about your days at viacom and too bad this company is in decline right now? >> i definitely feel that. >> yeah. >> and i hate to be so obtuse here but i really don't have any ideas as to the inner
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machinations in the redstone families or board or top management levels. >> at this point let's say philippe dauman tomorrow and does look unlikely since the court challenge, suppose he steps down tomorrow, who do you think should pop in an replace him. i asked you yesterday, but maybe you have more thoughts and the path is more clear at this point. >> that's the ultimate question. i'm sure there's several people on the there who would be wonderful in that position. i don't pt to conjecture now who they might be and i haven't really given it a lot of thought. >> okay. we've got new board members now. you were talking about repopulating the board yesterday with young people, people who have more of a digital connection. what do you make of the new board? >> well, i do know ken fairly well. this is a guy with unbelievable digital chops. he co-founded "huffington post" with arianna huffington. he's gone on to start all types of other ventures.
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he's well-known within that community. he's a chairman of buzzfeed. judith, she worked at mtv networks way back in the day, way back in the '80s. i remember the day she told me she was going to leave and go to discovery which was then pretty much a startup and she had a great career there and then she's been in government. she's an excellent choice for board member for viacom. she's steeped in this business, knows about it historically. she's very able, very good thinker. i must say i'm not famine a great way with the other three people who were nominated. >> let's say the board change is the only change that happens. dauman remains as ceo. are you more optimistic about viacom's future? do you think the company can rechart its course? >> i think you've got in place and they agree philippe is the proper manager to go on and they are willing to kind of rethink
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where they are and make some different choices for the future, you know, that is their prerogative. maybe that will work out just fine. >> hey, tom, it's brian kelly. i'm curious, wall street was very excited about this today, stock up 4.9%. it seems to me this is a company that has been in decline. p something is doing on there. as an investor i want to buy this stock. is there anything i should be worried about? is this too much of a soap opera for investors to get involved in at this point? >> well, i mean, i think you don't know really how it's going to end. you can make a good guess as to the probability. i'm not welling to venture up or down, i really don't know how to answer that clearly and give stock guidance if that's what you're asking for. >> no, i guess -- i'm fine buying it. i guess the biggest risk i see, like you said, you don't know how it's going to end. it seems as though there's change happening here regardless of what the outcome of the
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lawsuit is here, there is change happening. is that a good thing for the company? >> it's a good thing for the company. the company has seen -- they are having levels of rebound, and it's fair to assume with clear management direction with this reconstituted board that's going to certainly want to hit the ground running and take some quick action, there will be positive things happening for viacom and its future. and if it's a company that has been in the doldrums, i think it's quite likely that this might be -- they might be bottoming out and turning upwards. >> i asked you this yesterday, we're going to ask you again because of the news that has happened since then, would you consider being ceo? have you been asked by anybody pout that? >> nobody has asked me in the last 24 hours or before that. no, i would not -- i definitely would not want to be interested. as i said yesterday, this is a great job. it a great company. it can be brought back. someone can be in that position who could apply it with a lot
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more, you know, passion about it than i probably could at this stage. >> tom, a pleasure speaking with you again. thanks for your insights. >> okay. thank you all. bye-bye. >> tom freston, former viacom ceo. what do you think? >> we're talking about visibility into the future. we're also talking about business has been in decline since linear tv trends and what not. at what point is the valuation too compelling. this is a major discount, 9, 9.5, puts the stock conservatively at 50. you can impute more activity. it's a case very interesting stock underperformed 20% year over year. a sector, there's a lot of questions in the sector. therefore this is ultimately a relative value call if you believe new board equals change in direction. >> is the first time you're starting to see money flow into this space, everything universally negative. it is yielder, i think this is worth, i don't want to call it a
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flyer. the upside is the risk at this point. cbs up 50%. maybe the band gets back together again. so much written about that. cbs, election year cycle, that's probably a buy as well. >> said this in february traded down to 32, every time we discussed the stock since, we brought up exactly what tim said. valuation, it's ridiculous. with some of the companies it's trading half of what its peers do. now trading nine times, cbs 13 or so times forward earnings. you have to say bk was getting around, don't wait to short things out to buy, buy now saying here is a valuable property, 160 countries, 700 million households, somebody has to figure it out. when they figure it out, going to trade at 13 times forward earnings. >> up next one of the market's leading indicators could be flashing secret buy sign for stocks. tell you what that is and how you can get in. plus with markets around the world tumbling, where is a safe place to put your answer?
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we have answers when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money," s&p reversing big losses and finishing up on the day. that performance stands in stark contrast to what's happening around the world. rick ross head of technical analysis at the smart board with
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some global perspective. rich. >> i'm going to show you how to make fast money using slow moving averages. it's been rough overseas as the chart of the dax will attest to. what are we looking at. purple line, 200 week moving average. you tested it and held it today. you're down 7% just this month alone. what do we see in japan? we know similar sort of disaster if you will. 29% decline off the top. we're down 10% for the month alone of june. once again sitting right on that 200 week moving average as paul ryan said you can't make this stuff up, melissa. on the next page we see macroproxies for risk. these are flashing. what do we see. 200 week moving average. if we go back in time, 2007
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here, bring it back to the yen, 2007, that's the last time we break below 200 week moving average. clearly that was a good time to be a seller of just about everything. and we move to gold, another one of those safe havens. this is your 200 week moving average again. we see the rally into that 200 week. it holds its resistance to the dollar as guy attest to up around that 13, 1350, intraday reversal, responds to upside reversal in the market. so let's bring it back to the market gold and yen like graham and dodd for technician apply it to s&p 500. what's different about this chart? here is that 200 week moving average. nikkei down there, dax, yen is down there, yold ran into it. here is s&p. still 2, 2 1/2% off all-time high, down 80 basis points for the month, still up 2% for the year. i still think going into next week, going into that brexit, you are set up for an upside move here out of this
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multi-trading range. i think this is a bullish divergence for u.s. market. >> rich, you're saying, paul ryan, slow money, fast money. >> i said a number of times he's a zenith of guys and gals. rich ross -- >> anyway, your question is -- >> with that said, if they do break to the downside on the 200 day, specifically the dax, what type of move then can we ant pate? >> yeah, guy, look. below that 200 week moving average, 32% decline, break below 200 week moving ample, call it 9300, 9400 on the dax. that calls into question entire multi-year bull run off the the bottom. from there sort of all bets are off. you're now a better seller of rallies rather than a buyer of dips not that that's worked for years over in japan. all that said these are critical levels of support. to summit up, the price of
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safety soared, which makes it risky. while risk assets collapsed which makes it relatively safe or safer than it been over the past month. >> rich, good to see you. >> thank you. >> bringing the a game. >> practicing in the mirror. >> it paid off. >> i think that's off the cuff. >> maybe the middle of the german thing, that's gold. >> what's the other side to this. you're on the other side. >> listen, so the other side to this is that the u.s. market has to come in to meet others. those other markets are saying there's something going on in the global economy that's not right. the other side. >> the side you believe or no. >> that's the side i believe. i could go on why i think the dollar goes higher. >> the other side is, 2% upside. the other side 2% downside. gets us to that level 20, 25 or there abouts or right around 200 day. i see a binary situation, and
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you see 2% down, 2% up. >> where do you stand on binary situation. >> i think we're going lower. >> i think what you want to do, make the guys think u.s. is outperforming and just a matter of time, i already said this tonight, i would be short the s&p against long europe. if rich's call comes to fruition, you want to be long europe period. i mean, this is where you're going to have coiled spring. if the u.s. breaks to new highs, you're going to have a risk on rally and we've talked ad nauseam about the pent up moment up if, in fact, over a year of not making new 52-week high, we do that, this market will fly. >> what i will say, i agree with tim in terms of if you want to buy something, buy europe, em, besides short s&p. >> up neck, a strange disconnect happening in the markets. fear is rising but stocks are steady. we'll explain why that could present an attractive buying opportunity. smith & wesson surging after reporting earnings. the latest for the quarter.
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you're watching "fast money" cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.
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with more. >> upbeat results smith & wesson fueled by strong consumer demands specifically in firearm division helped by a rise in background checks. listen in. >> just admit background check during fiscal quarter grew 12.5% year over year reflecting increase consumer demand for firearms. >> in order to grow market share in firearm division, the company will continue to focus on handgun, personal protection devices, long guns used tore hunting as well as protection rifle to gain market share. expectation of gun roll riseses, forecasting shipments to jump no rules on the call. looking at shares of smith & wesson up 6 or 7% post this earnings, up 45% over the past one year, melissa. >> thank you very much, seema
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mody. unfortunately every time there's a tragic event there is anticipation of more gun control laws which drive up gun stock. where are we now in terms of this. >> i would just say up 6% in after hours. they mentioned fbi background checks. can you get that data ahead of time. i'd be cautious on buying a stock up 7% on that because it's already out there. >> now to the so-called fear index surging to four-month high. what does this mean for stocks? here with historical perspective on the vix. >> sure. be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. did see a decline in vix. taking a look back over three years, how do we see it done when vix was high. when vix above 20, bought s&p over the next 30 days you would have ampled a return of 3.1%. you're best return over that period would have been 10.9% and worst would have been down about 8%. here is the interesting bit, you
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would have been profitable 80% of the time. now, you buy s&p when it is below 20, your 30-day return is only 60 basis points. the best you would have done up 8.2% over that timeframe and the worst you would have done is down 9.7%. why this disconnect? one of the reasons is generally speaking people get fearful when some of the bad news has already crept in. take a look here. looking at vix at 20 over here. basically buying that dip, that dip, that dip, that dip, that dip. we haven't dipped quite enough here. after brexit, i think you buy it. >> thank you for that. full shows on friday 5:30 p.m. eastern. up next, final trade.
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it takesbut stealing itd work to eaonly took a few days. female announcer: protect your money. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at before you invest, tim. >> check out reverse on diageo. oversold uk, over sold europe. that's a very interesting chart to me. great company. >> 386. >> dupont, in and out of the name. it's reacting well technically. play it from the long side. i'll probably get back in in the next couple days. >> bk. >> buy viacom, 3.5% dividend
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yield uncorrelated to the sfm because of what's going on and change appears to be going on. >> shadowing hashtag molson comes out. >> see you my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i want to make you money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. today we saw a tremendous emotional tug-of-war between calmness over possible british


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